Thursday, June 11, 2015

Volume analysis and Moving Average on A Shares

Volume Analysis

Volume analysis is an analytical tool that is different from other analysis tools, the calculation is derived from the price. Fundamentally, volume analysis into basic microeconomics with the law of demand and supply.
When demand increases, the price will rise.
If demand falls, then the price will go down.
When the volume is high then the price will go up.
When the volume down then the price will go down.
When prices go up and demand down then the price will go down.
If the price drops and demand rises, the prices will go up. 

Formulation:
When prices go up and down the volume on the future prices will fall.
When the price down and volume up so in the future prices will rise.

Besides being able to determine confirmation of the price increase or decrease in price as well as the analysis of price movements in the future. Volume can also be used as a determinant of whether a price analysis is able to penetrate (breakout) support and resistance or able to assist in the support and resistance. Formulated as follows:
When a decline in prices and increase in volume means that in future there will be an increase in the price at which it can be awaited reversal of the rise of the value of the transaction volume in the amount above the value of the average volume normally.

At the moment the price down and volume up it will terjad a reversal pattern, and to do the necessary reversal pattern a volume of 2x from the value of the average volume (SMA 20). SMA 20 is a moving average of volume that occurred during the 20 consecutive trading days. When the price rises and volume increases, the price increases can continue in the next condition.

Volume analysis can be used when the prices were skyrocketing and padaa rise when prices fall sharply. Analysis of the volume is not too difficult but still it needs to be supported by other analysis to avoid being trapped by falling prices or price increases were not to our liking.

Moving Average

Moving averages serve as a determinant of the trend and support resistace. Moving averages are lines obtained from the calculation of the share price prior to today, when the said moving average is 30, it means the average 30-day stock price movement backward. Moving averages can be made of the value of opening, closing, high and low, but in general used closing price. Moving average is composed of several types, including:
1. Simple moving average (SMA)
2. Exponential moving average
3. Weighted moving average
4. Triangular moving average

There are many more other moving averages derived from regression (Least square moving average), the second derivative of the exponential moving average (Double exponential moving average) and so forth. That differentiates it from all the pattern average calculation, aggravating a certain period value is considered more weight and is calculated based on the volatility of the change.

I will focus on the explanation simple moving average and the exponential moving average. Because we are not too requires a complicated thing that we also do not really need a lot of definitions and tools that are increasingly complex. But at its core, is a modified moving average moving average to get a more valid.

On the use of two moving averages can confirm we will the trend change easier. Smaller moving average will usually be closer to us than the moving average candlestick longer. At the time of penetrating the small moving average moving average of the top called the Death Cross, and small to penetrate the moving average moving average from below and above large so-called Golden Cross.

Conclusions:
Simple moving average has two functions, namely:
1. As a decisive trend.
2. As the support and reistance.

When the candlestick is above the moving average then the price has strengthened, while if the underlying weakened.

When the candlestick is above the moving average and after the moving average line and bounced up it can be said that the moving average acts as support, whereas when the candlestick is below the moving average and the candlestick break above the moving average, but bounced back after touching down means moving averages apply as resistance.

When the moving average smaller moving average penetrated upwards larger, it can be said that the price has strengthened. However, if the moving average is smaller penetrate down moving average is greater then the price weakened.
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